This news article was originally written in Spanish. It has been automatically translated for your convenience. Reasonable efforts have been made to provide an accurate translation, however, no automated translation is perfect nor is it intended to replace a human translator. The original article in Spanish can be viewed at Aunque débilmente, la industria catalana recupera la confianza

The 'indicator of the Industrial climate' reflects still uncertainties arising from the economic environment

Although weakly, the Catalan industry regains confidence

Drafting Interempresas27/01/2011

on January 27, 2011

The 'prospective Industrial Observatory' of the Department of Economics and occupation of the Generalitat de Catalunya publishes monthly results of the survey of economic Industrial, designed for the Catalan industrial evolution in the short term through specific indicators which synthesize the responses of economic agents. The month of December, 2010 results reflect an improvement in confidence 2009 and 2008 by the Catalan industrialists, though not to the rates of our European neighbours.

The results presented in this document come from the answers given by the Catalan industrial companies that are part of the sample that is both made the survey of Industrial economy of the Ministry of industry, tourism and trade as the monthly survey of the manufacturing industry of the European Commission. The questionnaire includes a small number of questions on the following variables: backlog (total and foreign); stocks of finished products; production; trend of sales prices. For each one of them calls for the opinion on its current 'level' and the 'trend' planned for the next three months, by asking questions that allow a tripe level of response: positive, negative or stable.

Source: Direcció General d'Indústria de la Generalitat de Catalunya on the basis of data from the Ministry of industry, tourism and trade.

Confidence rises, although not orders

The confidence of the Catalan industry has improved during 2010 in relation to the previous two years. Despite suffering the effects of the international economic and financial crisis, the annual median of the 'indicator of climate Industrial' (ICI) has been, for 2010, fifteen points more than the 2009 and seven points higher than the 2008.

With regard to the quarterly evolution, industrial climate has experienced a weak improvement during the first two quarters of the year to move to a stalemate during the third and resume improvement during the quarter. This has led to close the year with the high level of confidence since the first quarter of 2008. However, we must not lose sight that the ICI's December falls four points below the medium to long term, something that reflects the weakness of the industrial recovery and the uncertainties arising from the economic environment.

This situation is analogous to the set of Spain, where the 2010 ICC annual median is 13 points more than the 2009 and the data of December is the highest since April 2008. On the other hand, in the European Union, the improvement has been much more pronounced, the annual median of the ICI has increased 24 points in relation to the 2009 and the ICI of December is the highest since September 2007.

The analysis of the components of the Catalonia ICI shows that total orders have improved 18 points perceptual annual medium, something that has given that stocks have done in 16 points and that the trend of production, in 10. However, note that quarterly evolution shows a stabilization of orders during the second half of the year, which confirms the weakness of the process of restoring confidence.

If he attends the economic destination of the goods, you will see that the behavior of the subsectors is aligned, in general, with the whole of the industry, since all have significantly improved the annual medium of the ICC and have closed the year with a few levels of distrust higher than those who had in December 2009.

In the EU, the improvement has been much more pronounced than in Spain. Since the annual median of the ICI has increased 24 points in relation to 2009 and the ICI of December it is the highest since September 2007.

As for the indicator on the level of industrial production, it should be noted that annual median has increased by 23 points in relation to the 2009 perceptual. But this, the balance remains negative, which means that there are still employers who claim that production decreases that those who claim not totally the opposite.

Finally, the indicators on the trend of industrial prices reveals that 2010 has not been deflationary as 2009, but has not been inflationary tensions. This, the subsector of intermediate goods (textiles, paper and cardboard, processed plastics, production and primary transformation of metals, basic chemistry, etc.) is however that runs the risk of some inflationary tension, probably due to the evolution of the price of oil.