The IMF expected for 2009 a decrease of 2% and in 2010 GDP only a rise of 0.2%

The expansive path that marked the evolution of the world economy in recent years years began to change in 2007. This year marks a turning point that, while it has its point of origin in the United States economy, has finally moved to other countries and, in particular, the European economies. The initially financial nature of the crisis made their effects on the real economy, and industry in particular, not very intense in a principle and not affect clearly to businesses and the population well into the year 2008. However, today the global economic crisis are becoming deeper and more widespread, reaching all geographical areas with greater intensity.

The continuity of the problems in the banking world are translating into more restrictive credit conditions and the confidence of economic agents are found in very low levels. In parallel, they dropped the prices of raw materials and the activity has slowed.

The economy of the euro area also suffer a decline in activity, so the IMF provides a decrease of 2% GDP for 2009 and in 2010 only a rise of 0.2%, while the European Commission projects a decline of 1.9 per cent this year and an increase of 0.4% in the next.

The tone of recent indicators has been negative in recent months, with the increase in the unemployment rate in December to 8%, being major setbacks in recent months in orders and industrial production, while economic sentiment is found at very low levels. However, in this context it should be noted that while the deterioration will continue, its speed could be lower than that observed in the last months of 2008.

While growth in advanced economies already stalled in the second quarter of 2008, commodity prices continued rising until the beginning of the summer, to keep demand in emerging economies, and considered that the global financial crisis could pay off with a relatively modest damage to the real economy. However, as of July came a rapid and sharp fall in the prices of these products, before the discovery of the weak position of the global economy. At the end of 2008, the overall rate of raw materials developed by 'the economist' was 37.7 per cent lower in July, with a decline of 47.2 per cent in the price of the metal. With regard to oil prices, of Brent reached a peak in early July, to overcome the 145 dollars/barrel,
undertaking since then a rapid descent to December below 45 dollars/barrel, the lowest in three years and a half as a reaction to the weakness in global demand. On the other hand, the decline in the prices of oil and other raw materials is reflected significantly in a more moderate prices of consumption and production, assuming a relief for families and businesses, and contributing to a slight advance in confidence.

In the case of Spain, the economy has increased the adjustment process that finds itself since the second half of 2008, behavior that fits, in turn, in a context of economic slowdown in the major industrialized countries and the world economy in general. With regard to the development of sectoral activity, the slowdown of the economic expansion is reflected in the main branches, especially in construction and industry, while the services sector also begins to be affected.

In relation to the industry, the index of Industrial production (IPI) experienced in December, a significant decline, - 19.6% with corrected series of calendar, behavior already anticipated by the drop registered by the level of order intake in the industry in November (- 28.1%). Thus, the IPI closed 2008 with an annual average fall of 6.8 per cent, as a result of the weakening of all its components, especially intermediate goods and equipment.

Other indicators of activity and employment in the industry are in the same direction. The rate of variation of the index of turnover reached in November, a minimum historical, reaching - 21.5%, and the number of members of the Social Security has declined in January for the eighth consecutive month, resulting in unemployment a growth rate of 47.1 per cent in January to a year earlier.

The tone of weakening of industrial activity has been reflected in the qualitative sector indicators, as it shows thirteen points cuts suffered by the indicator of confidence in the industry in the fourth quarter of 2008 in relation to the previous quarter. However, it should be noted the orientation upward shown by the indicator in January of this year, as a result of the improvement in expectations and in the backlog, as well as the reduction of the stock of finished productsvery positive data for the sector given the current situation and the trend in recent months.

As consequence of all the sectoral, national and international situation above exposed, the investment team has accused since mid-2008 the weakness of domestic demand and the adjustment of industrial activity. Being directly affected by the climate of dominant uncertainty, various indicators available in the past few months show signs of marked weakness. Thus, the availability of equipment as a whole declined 21.5% in 2008 over the same period of 2007, figure that contrasts with the increase of over 12 per cent in the whole of last year. However, net external demand contributed eight tenths to the GDP growth in the last quarter of 2008, five points more than in the prior quarter, as a result of a modest increase in exports of goods and services and a decline in imports. However, according to the report of prospects for the global economy published recently by the World Bank, he hoped that trade in goods to contract again in 2009 that, on the one hand, the import demand in the developed economies has declined in a abruta manner and at the same timeliquidity constraints are beginning to affect export performance of developing countries, limiting commercial credit and making it difficult to export insurance.

In this climate of declining, where the predominant factor is uncertainty generalized for all sectors, is one of the following fixed dedicated to machinery and tools, active study that brings together all the domestic industry. However, in the absence of official updated data on the evolution of the sectors that encompass, is the tendency of the same in recent years, showing its weight in the Spanish economy and its characteristics prior to the given situation. However, the pace of growth of production, demand, business figures and trade has been reduced over the past year in all the industrial sectors, trend that follows in the first months of 2009, as a result of the slowdown of the industry at a global level. Demand shrinks and the offer suffers, being the restriction of investment one of the first resources that companies, with what the machinery sector suffers particularly of the crisis at the global level.