X-ray of the economic situation in the sector of machine tools
April 6, 2009
The economy of the euro area also suffer a decline in activity, so the IMF provides a decrease of 2% GDP for 2009 and in 2010 only a rise of 0.2%, while the European Commission projects a decline of 1.9 per cent this year and an increase of 0.4% in the next.
The tone of recent indicators has been negative in recent months, with the increase in the unemployment rate in December to 8%, being major setbacks in recent months in orders and industrial production, while economic sentiment is found at very low levels. However, in this context it should be noted that while the deterioration will continue, its speed could be lower than that observed in the last months of 2008.
While growth in advanced economies already stalled in the second quarter of 2008, commodity prices continued rising until the beginning of the summer, to keep demand in emerging economies, and considered that the global financial crisis could pay off with a relatively modest damage to the real economy. However, as of July came a rapid and sharp fall in the prices of these products, before the discovery of the weak position of the global economy. At the end of 2008, the overall rate of raw materials developed by 'the economist' was 37.7 per cent lower in July, with a decline of 47.2 per cent in the price of the metal. With regard to oil prices, of Brent reached a peak in early July, to overcome the 145 dollars/barrel,
undertaking since then a rapid descent to December below 45 dollars/barrel, the lowest in three years and a half as a reaction to the weakness in global demand. On the other hand, the decline in the prices of oil and other raw materials is reflected significantly in a more moderate prices of consumption and production, assuming a relief for families and businesses, and contributing to a slight advance in confidence.
Situation in Spain
In relation to the industry, the index of Industrial production (IPI) experienced in December, a significant decline, - 19.6% with corrected series of calendar, behavior already anticipated by the drop registered by the level of order intake in the industry in November (- 28.1%). Thus, the IPI closed 2008 with an annual average fall of 6.8 per cent, as a result of the weakening of all its components, especially intermediate goods and equipment.
Other indicators of activity and employment in the industry are in the same direction. The rate of variation of the index of turnover reached in November, a minimum historical, reaching - 21.5%, and the number of members of the Social Security has declined in January for the eighth consecutive month, resulting in unemployment a growth rate of 47.1 per cent in January to a year earlier.
The tone of weakening of industrial activity has been reflected in the qualitative sector indicators, as it shows thirteen points cuts suffered by the indicator of confidence in the industry in the fourth quarter of 2008 in relation to the previous quarter. However, it should be noted the orientation upward shown by the indicator in January of this year, as a result of the improvement in expectations and in the backlog, as well as the reduction of the stock of finished productsvery positive data for the sector given the current situation and the trend in recent months.
Fall of the availability of equipment
In this climate of declining, where the predominant factor is uncertainty generalized for all sectors, is one of the following fixed dedicated to machinery and tools, active study that brings together all the domestic industry. However, in the absence of official updated data on the evolution of the sectors that encompass, is the tendency of the same in recent years, showing its weight in the Spanish economy and its characteristics prior to the given situation. However, the pace of growth of production, demand, business figures and trade has been reduced over the past year in all the industrial sectors, trend that follows in the first months of 2009, as a result of the slowdown of the industry at a global level. Demand shrinks and the offer suffers, being the restriction of investment one of the first resources that companies, with what the machinery sector suffers particularly of the crisis at the global level.