The recovery of the European construction in 2014 will not be conclusive but neither expect more relapses
As every year,
Europe, end of the recession
The sector European construction is wary in front of the indicators of improvement that glimpse for 2014, fearful that it can treat of another phenomenon passenger like the registered in 2010 and 2011. Part of this scepticism comes given by the data collected this 2013 (-3,0%), that do not correspond with numbers of a year in transition. At any rate, the reports of Euroconstruct affirm that the end of the recession can be definite, and that, although there are not reasons for a relapse, neither there are them to expect a conclusive recovery. The expectations of growth reduce to 0,9% for 2014 and to 1,8% for 2015, with tendency to accelerate of face to 2016.
Of left to right: Anton M. Checa, general director of the ITeC, and Josep R. Fontana, boss of the Service of Prospectiva of the ITeC.
In a moment of change of cycle like this, has to loan so much attention to the future forecast by countries, as to his behaviour during the last years. Ireland and Hungary head the ranking of positive forecasts, but will not be so significant when treating of markets that come of contractions very severe. The most favourable situation have it the countries in which it has been able to conserve a base of reasonable market by his low exhibition to the crisis, as for example the countries of the Germanic orbit. In the opposite side find almost a third of the countries of the zone Euroconstruct, between them France or Italy, that will not attain to reach the modest rhythm of growth average.
Forecast by countries of the production of the sector construction. Annual growth 2014 and 2015, to constant prices.
The edificación residential closes his cycle recesivo in 2013 (-3,6%), and as already it comes giving during the last reports, turns into the segment with the forecasts of greater growth in 2014 (+2,4%) and 2015 (+4,0%). Even so, the market of the house continues being far of his normalisation by the low demand that gives in practically all the east Europe, Italy, France and Spain. In United Kingdom and Holland expects a true advance, but in an atmosphere of high uncertainty. Once again, the only markets in where it foresees a growth, so much of offer as of demand, circumscribe to the Nordic zone and the Germanic.
The edificación no residential still has not hit rock bottom, the contraction will be remarkable in 2013 (-5,6%) will soften in 2014 (-1,0%) and in 2015 will be finally positive (+1,4%). The submercados in better position will be the ones of logistics and health, whereas the edificación industrial and of offices has a more delicate perspective by the abundance of stocks. On the other hand, the destined construction to trade and education will tend to the stagnation. The Scandinavian countries and Germany seem to be the only appeals for the promoters.
Evolution of the distinct subsectores in the European market. Indexes of production to constant prices, base 2008=100.
The rehabilitation of real estate will follow ciñéndose to his same behaviour, showing resistance to contract , but also to grow. Like this, it has been the segment that less has contributed to the descent of production of 2013 (-1,2%), but also will be the one who less grow in 2015 (+1,2%) by the situation of economic crisis.
The civil engineering also trusts that this was his last exercise in negative (-4,2%), after which will open a period of modest growth and of little acceleration (+1,2% in 2014 and +1,6% in 2015) given by the limitation deficitaria of the public servicys. As it comes being usual, the best expectations find in the infrastructures of power, but warns that the low investment will not satisfy the marked aims by the EU for 2020. The most positive forecasts correspond to the east countries, whose growth tends to do more robust of face to 2016.
Situation and forecasts in Spain
After 6 years in which the production of the sector construction in Spain has fallen in hammered (-78,45% from 2007), 2016 foresees like the year in which, finally, the exercise will close in positive (+2,9%) if the civil engineering interrupts his negative route. Although 2013 it was the sixth year of recession, the production has suffered another big fall (-23%), and by a lot that the indicators macroeconómicos tend to stabilise , is premature to aspire to that the construction hit rock bottom in 2014 (-6,7%). For 2015, still it foresees another negative exercise, but almost neutral, of -0,5%.
The markets of edificación continue dragging a severe problem of excess of stocks in Spain that do not achieve to resolve neither the descent of new projects, neither the fall of prices. The return of the foreign real-estate investment is a good news, more by what represents like espaldarazo of confidence that in terms of real objective impact. And it is that it will not be able to speak of normalisation until the effective return of the national buyer. The best letter with which explains the sector are the families, still very punished by the descent of his income and by the drought of credit, what does that the recovery was so slow.
Evolution by subsectores
The forecast for the edificación residential part of a 2013 of conclusive descents (-21%) to finish with positive figures in 2015 (+6%) and 2016 (+8%). However, these few points of growth with utmost difficulty go to leave feel in a sector that leaves backwards a descent accumulated of more than the -83% along the period 2007-2013. Another way to give to these forecasts his suitable context is to observe the number of houses of new creation to the that go associated: so alone 50 or 55.000 houses in the horizon 2015-16, or what is the same, 1 house built by each 1.000 inhabitants, figures in increase, but that keep on being own of a market in crisis. These data contrast with the ones of Italy, that bends the construction of house by inhabitant, or France, with 5 houses by each 1.000 inhabitants.
For the edificación no residential expects a reaction something slower, and does not trust that the production abandon the negative zone until 2016. Anyway, the descent goes moderating paulatinamente (-17% in 2013, -6% in 2014) until arriving to a 2015 practically neutral (-0,2%). This answers to that the different submercados no residential have a capacity of uneven reaction. Like this, the more reacios to the inflection will be the industrial construction, by a part, and the destined to education and health by another; these last lastrados by the withdrawal of the public investment. If in 2016 the offices add to the positive tendency, the forecast could situate in 2,2%.
Evolution of the distinct subsectores in the Spanish market. Indexes of production to constant prices, base 2008=100.
Euroconstruct Oslo, June of 2014
The next appointment for the follow-up of the sector will celebrate the next days 12 and 13 June in Oslo and will be organised by Prognosesenteret, Norwegian member of the group.
As of habit, the experts of the 19 countries of the network Euroconstruct will present his relative conclusions to the follow-up of the course of the sector together with the perspectives until the year 2016. The definite program will give to know in
