Infrastructures: considerations, challenges and forecasts

In front of the opinion poured from different fields, the infrastructures, as it ensures from Seopan, are not the origin of the Spanish crisis. In fact, between 1995 and 2012 the ratio of public investment in Spain, in real terms of euros invested by km² and million of inhabitants, has been coincident with the one of Germany (1.377 euros/km²/million of inhabitants, in front of the 1.353 euros/km²/million of inhabitants in Germany), inferior in 7% to the of France and very inferior to the of United Kingdom and Italy (-24 and -29% respectively).

In spite of these data, the civil work is bearing the greater weight of the adjust public prosecutor that comes realising during the last years by part of the Administration. Whereas from the 2010 the public deficit has reduced in three points porcentuales (of the 9,7 to 6,7%), the public investment on the GDP, in his elder splits in infrastructures, has fallen of 4,0% to 1,8%, that is to say more than the half in hardly two years. This, added to the own increase of the fiscal pressesure on the companies (the income of the tax on societies grew during the 2012 in 4.824 million euros, 29% more), gives like result that in the period 2010-2012 have destroyed near of 235.000 employments only in civil work.

If it takes like half reference the period 1995/2012 (3,4% GDP), has produced a loss of investment of 22.100 million euros between the years 2011 and2012. From the own patronal speaks of “failure” of the rhythm investor reached in the last 18 years, of such form that, after the cuts suffered, in 2013-2014 Spain will have the minor ratio of investment by surface and population of the EU27, 50% inferior to the Italian, 51% inferior to the German, 55% inferior to the French and 60% inferior to the English, when really, because of the singularities of our country in surface, population and orography, the ratio investment/GDP would have to be upper to the average of the EU. Another surprising data: the reduction of public investment that has produced in Spain during the last four years is equivalent to which has realised Germany in 42 years.

In summary, while Spain has invested in the period 1995-2012 580.000 million euros in civil work (euros of 2012), in this same time France invested almost the double (1.076.000 million euros), Germany 18,5% more, Italy 9% more and United Kingdom 12% less (it is necessary to consider in this case the importance of the investment realised out of balance of this country). And in front of the current of opinion that aims that many of these investments were to infrastructures of scarce social interest, from Seopan answers that the examples of without sense public investments economic, executed by criterion of the public servicys, represent in reality less than the 5 by one thousand of the civil work realised in the two last decades.

Seopan resume In six points the main challenges to which confronts at present the civil work in Spain. In the first place, resolve the morosidad of the public servicys. The plan of payment to providers and of the bottom of autonomic liquidity of 2012 represent a “historical milestone” in the resolution of this grave problem. The extension of the mechanism of financials to providers approved in 2013 and endowed with 2.628 million euros has to allow saldar the liquid defeated debts and exigible of the activity concesional of autonomic field, that totalizan 420 million euros. Besides, it is precise to finish to resolve the budgetary deficit of 2013 (from previous exercises) in several organs of contracting of the General Administration of the State that situates in 1.700 million euros (17% of the budget of the two ministries investors).

Like second challenge, from the patronal aims to the need to attract foreign investment to promote infrastructures in diet of public collaboration-private, for what requires resolve the critical situation of the motorways of toll giving fulfillment to the measures of reequilibrio agreed in the Laws of PGE 2010 and 2013 and Postal Law. Besides it has to resolve the current problem of juridical inhygiene in matter of transmission of risks to the private operator and in question of terms and conditions of the agreements; and it has to propiciarse a frame tributario competitive for the fiscal treatment of the financial costs.

Seopan Also requests, for encarar the third challenge, support, by means of the guarantee of the State, the obtaining of technical guarantees for the activity of the companies of infrastructures in the outside. Through the ICO, in coordination with the BEI, have to promote lines of guarantees that facilitate the provision of the guarantees demanded to the companies to be able to concurrir to the international public contests.

To anticipate the economic recovery, as fourth point proposes , in 2014 (Law of General Budgets of the State), the contraction of a third of the wallet hired slope of execution to date of 1 January 2014 (8.000 million euros), additional to an investment in said similar exercise to the agreed in 2013 (10.021 million euros), what would allow to create 144.000 new places of work and a fiscal return closely of 5.000 million euros.

To half term proposes besides, as fifth challenge, develop a new model of conservation and maintenance of the infrastructures, based in the tarificación by use (while in roads of high capacity the network of toll in France is of 80% on the total, in Spain is of hardly 20%). This measure would affect to the network of general interest of high capacity and would generate a annual income closely of 3.000 million euros, being able to repercutirse 1/3 of the same to the adoption of palliative measures (sector transport) and 2/3 to the maintenance and conservation of the existent network.

And like sixth and last challenge, Seopan proposes, on a long-term basis, promote the public collaboration-deprived for the promotion of the infrastructures in the fields of the water (the infrastructures of purification suffer a deficit of around 10.000 million euros), of the rail transport of commodities (using the existent runners of the conventional rail network), of the intermodalidad and accesses to ports, and of the infrastructures projected of rail vicinities with greater occupation.

According to the data handled by Seopan, the values of representativeness of the public investment programmed for the period 2013-2015 surpass, by the low, the historical minimum of the available statistical bases from 1964, reached this in 1979 with 1,7% of investment on the GDP (now are around 1,5% on the GDP in front of 4,5% that reached in 2009).

Because of the application of the Plan of Stability, in 2012 the public investment Spaniard reduced 38% with regard to the cleared in 2011, and in 2013 and 2014 is foreseen that it diminish 41% and 48% respectively, taking like reference this 2011.

This fall of investment reflects logically in a descent pronounced of sectorial indicators like the one of the production (-11,5% in 2012 with regard to the 2011), the employment (-17,6%), the consumption of cement (-34%) or the houses initiated (-42,5%), among others.

Specifically, the edificación (including residential, no residential and rehabilitation-maintenance) saw diminished his production in 2012 with regard to the 2011 5,2%, whereas in the civil work this fall interanual arrived to 25%. All this does that the production by subsectores in real terms have fallen to levels of mediated of the years 90 and that the ratio of total investment under construction on the GDP in 2012 have been inferior to the half level reached from the decade of the 70. The employment also has retreated to the levels experienced to starts of the decade of the 80 (in 2006 arrived to work in the construction 2.687.000 people in front of the 1.122.000 current, giving the greater destruction of employment in the subsector of the edificación).

Regarding the public bidding of works, in terms of representativeness on the GDP, in 2012 registered a historical minimum (0,7%) on the available series from 1980. The bidding of the Ministry responsible for public works accumulates a fall of 85% from 2008 whereas the one of Environingingment is of 82% from 2006. In the case of the autonomic administrations the descent accumulated from 2008 is of 82%, same percentage that has experienced the bidding of the city councils from 2009. To all this it is necessary to add also the important shrinking that has produced in the public bidding of grantings so much by part of the General Administration of the State as of the local administrations (686 million euros in 2012 in front of the 10.228 million euros of 2010).

The public adjudications of the State also have followed the same negative tendency, registering in 2012, in terms of representativeness on the GDP, a historical minimum of the available series. In the period 2007-2012 accumulates a fall of 75%: Promotion, -73%;  Environingingment, -84%; Autonomic, -81% (2009); City councils, -77% (2009).

In 2012, so only 231 companies received adjudications by part of the ministries responsible for public works and Environingingment by a value of 2.514 million euros, in front of the 592 companies that received adjudications in 2007 by value of 9.900 million euros.

Besides, it is necessary to take into account that the half size of these works awarded by Promotion has reduced to the half from the year 2000 (in the case of Environingingment this size has kept , and by part of the autonomic administrations and venues has reduced the size 35% from the 2004).

With all these data is not of extrañar that the constructors are focusing good parts of his efforts in the internationalisation. The data of Seopan are very clarificadores in this appearance: whereas in 2012 his main associated saw to grow his international business 33,5% with regard to the 2011, in this same period saw to diminish his volume of business in the domestic market 15,4%, of such form that his works in the outside already represent 69,3% of the total.

The countries of the European Union (40%), Sudamérica-Centroamérica (29%) and North America (20%) consolidate like the main destinations of his contractings. According to Public Work Financing, Spain adds 200.970 M$ of investment in 198 grantings, absorbing 51,5% of the ránking of the ten greater classified dealers by capital invested.

The planned investment by the ministries responsible for public works and Environingingment for 2013 through the General Budgets of the State, supposes a descent of 60% with regard to the maximum reached in 2009.Thus the estimate for this year is that the sector of the construction will subtract 1,1 points to the GDP and, in the case to keep the same tendency, the contribution of this sector in 2014 will keep on being negative.

By segments, the forecasts of Seopan for this 2013 aim to falls of the 4-6% for the edificación residential, of the 5-6% for the no residential, of the 4-6% for the rehabilitation and the maintenance and of the 21-25% for the civil work, establishing for the total of the sector of the construction a descent interanual from among the 9 and 11%.