Germany – Spain, opposite faces in the sector of the construction

However, Germany is not the country that experienced a greater growth in investments in the past course. At the head of the table situate countries like Lithuania (9,4%), Sweden (9,2%) and Poland (9%); some figures that contrast with the important shrinkings suffered in Ireland (-23,5%), Slovenia (-21,7%) and Greece (-17,5%).

The impairment of the economy in Europe, is affecting of direct way to the sector construction. The mejoría that some countries experienced during 2011 does not seem to have continuity in this 2012 and remained in a mere mirage, since for 2012 foresees a descent of the production of the -2%. The forecast for 2013 contemplates that the group of the countries grow 0,5%, although they will exist important divergences between countries.

In terms interanuales, the activity European constructor, to the equal that in Spain, has diminished in July (last data published) 6,1% in all the community block. With descents of 18% for Portugal and Slovenia, of the -14% for Italy and of the -10% in United Kingdom.

With regard to the demand of houses, the activity in Spain will continue being very feeble, at least in the next 20 months, with some forecasts of 185.000 new houses sold in 2012. The main explanation for this tendency finds in the restrictions to the credit, the high indexes of unemployment and in factors sociodemográficos, between them the reduction of the resident population in Spain and the net migratory balance negative current.

The continuous succession of bad news in the Spanish economy (recession, rescue to the banking, rescue to the country, …) present a stage that affects directly to the sector construction, for which the new forecasts auguran falls of the -21% for 2012 and of 8% for 2013. Although this sector and mainly in Spain is subject to important volatilities, for 2014 foresees a suavización of the losses (-2%).

In terms interanuales, the activity constructor in Spain, according to Eurostat, descended 16,1% in the past month of July in relation to the same month of 2011.

The edificación residential continues paralysed by the big “stock” of remanent houses, between 800.000 and 850.000, that do not find exit. The greater obstacles are of índole financial. The endurecimiento of provisions, applied on the active in wallet, can force the exit to the market of houses to lower price; but applied on the new promotion and on the new mortgages, can be a problem.

For 2012 and 2013, expects that the stock of houses in Spain grow in 115.000 and 110.00 houses respectively. Until 2015, the forecast is that they believe 100.000 new homes of annual average.

In Europe, however, the perspectives are more positive, although modest. For 2012, it expects an increase of 1,8% of edificación residential, whereas for 2013 and 2014 the forecast improves until 3,6% for both years. This growth can be due to that the exit of active and real-estate debt of the financial entities stimulate to the investors, and to that the banks are giving off of the active no strategic of his balances. All this can generate a greater dynamism in the market.

The edificación no residential, however, will take more time in showing signs of improvement, so much in Spain as in Europe. For 2012, it expects that this type of constructions diminish in a -10% in our country, in front of the -2,7% of average in the continent. For 2013, the descent in Spain will be of a -1% and will produce a light rise in 2014, with 1,5%. In Europe, the perspectives are more positive, with a growth of 2,4% and 1,8% for 2013 and 2014 respectively.

According to Cesce, the problem of Spain is that it exists an excess of offer product of edificación no residential, whose production does not brake to the same rhythm that the fall of the demand. In this subsector expect opportunities at good cost owing to the stock that at present is in hands of the banks, but results practically indispensable some symptom of economic improvement so that this have a catalyst on the construction.

The civil engineering is the subsector that worse expectations presents for the period 2012- 2014. In the case of Spain, the cuts in public investment to brake the deficit caused a fall of 34% in 2011, whereas for 2012, 2013 and 2014 expects a descent of 40%, 19% and 10%, respectively. Although in Europe the perspectives are not so alarming as in Spain, also expects for 2012 a descent of 4% in the civil works of the Old Continent. In 2013 and 2014, this subsector will present a light improvement, with some forecasts of growth of 0,6% for both years. According to the report of Cesce, the future in Spain and Europe goes through to reestablish the confidence of the private investment, at present in minima. From here that the panorama contemplate the continuation of the negative tendency during 2013 and 2014.

Cesce is a skilled company in the Integral Gestión of the Commercial Risk and in services of credit that offers to his customers provision that cover all the phases of the business. It is the cabecera of the Group Cesce, integrated cheese cheese by eight Companies of safe of credit and of caución with presence in ten countries, Informs D&B (financial information, commercial, and of marketing), and CTI (technology and gestión). The aim of the group is to contribute hygiene to the commercial exchanges favouring at the same time the development of the companies.