Energy and climate strategies for long-term Spain: an analysis with a techno model

Examples of the international commitments made by Spain would be made in the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol (+ 15% GHG), the proposal of 20-30% reduction of greenhouse gases from the European Commission in its energy policy for Europe, as well as the various sectoral objectives set (energy efficiency)(participation of renewable in the energy basket or the use of biofuels in transport). This work explores various strategies energy and climate to Spain in a horizon in the medium and long term (up to 2050) given, among others: the Kyoto Protocol, the objectives undertaken by the European Union (greenhouse gases and renewable energy), energy security aspects (Spain matter almost all the gas and crude oil consumed)the development of renewable energy sources and their possible role in the future climate, and energy strategies, the uncertain future of nuclear energy, as well as the possibility of buying emission in international markets. The quantitative analysis is based on the use of the techno Times-Spain model that optimizes the energy during the period 2000-2050 system in such a way that will minimize the net cost of the system and meet the demands specified in exógenamente, various energy services (for example the production of iron and steel)(, per passenger-kilometers, the needs of heating in the residential sector, etc.), as well as various environmental or political restrictions. The model Times contains thousands of technologies in all sectors of the energy system depicting in detail the extraction, trade, transformation and energy end-use. The results can be very useful in making decisions on future policies and measures energy and climate to take by Spain.

The security in energy supply, which at the same time have a minimal negative impact on the environment and is totally feasible, is a common of all countries concern that this depends on the well-being of its population and the development of its economy. Any country or region needs an energy planning long-term where are taken into consideration new developments in existing conventional and renewable technologies, emerging technologies and predictions about future technologies. In addition, create scenarios to long term requires knowing or glimpse the future needs of consumption on the basis of the economic and demographic development of the region. These scenarios, with a time horizon of 30, 50 or more years, may only be reproduced through advanced energy models that incorporate all these variables.

Energy models are commonly used by Governments and international agencies as a tool to support the process of decision-making. To the responsible politicians in the field of energy, the ideal solution requires a combination of measures: reducing the demand for energy services, increase their efficiency and reduce pollutant emissions per unit of energy used. Energy models are used to assist this process of decision making, so they must present current and future energy technologies with their associated costs and operating data.

Energy models are mathematical representations of the way in which energy is obtained, transported and finally used. They are, first, economic tools that require further specialized information on technology and other disciplines.

Times (Markal-Efom System) is an evolution of the Markal model ("source code") generator developed within the Etsap (Energy Technology System Analysis Programme) programme of the International Energy Agency. This is a generator of dynamic optimization models which allow to represent future scenarios of complex energy systems both at national and regional, local or sectoral level. A model generated by Times offers the solution for lower cost under certain restrictions. It uses scenarios to explore possible future developments of an energy system. These scenarios consist of a full set of input data that reflect the assumptions made by the Modeller as the projection of the evolution of the energy demand induced by the change in population and gross domestic product (GDP) or the availability of new technologies at a certain time. The models Times databases contain thousands of technologies in all sectors of the energy system depicting in detail the extraction, trade, transformation and energy end-use.

As in most of the energy system models, the energy carriers interconnect at Times conversion and energy consumption. These include all energy vectors related to the primary sources (mining, extraction of oil, cultivation of biomass, etc.), the conversion and processing (power plants, refineries, etc.), and the end use of energy services (boilers, cars, etc.). The demand for energy services can disaggregate for each sector (residential, industrial, transportation and trade) and by specific functions within a sector (air conditioning, heating, lighting, hot water, etc.). The optimization routine

used in the solution of the model, select each of the sources, vector energy and transformation technologies to produce the lowest cost solution subject to a series of restrictions placed by the Modeller (for example: CO2 emissions).

Using the generator models Times, has developed the minimisation model Times-Spain that optimizes the Spanish energy system during the period 2000-2030 or 2000-2050 in a way that will minimize the net cost of the system and meet the demands specified exógenamenteof the various energy services for all sectors as well as various environmental or political restrictions. This model has been developed within the framework of the European project Needs and improved in various aspects of the renewable technologies in the framework of the European project Res2020. The model Times-Spain form part of a Pan European (Pem) model developed within the project Needs that integrates national models of the 27 countries of the EU more Norway, Switzerland and Iceland.

The Spanish model consists of a single internal region with information for the five sectors of the energy (industrial, residential, commercial, transport and electric). The projection of demand is calculated based on a few factors of growth as the population, gross domestic product, or family units that will be externally through other models or sources. GDP growth rates are obtained by a general model of balance, the Gem-E3 (General Equilibrium Model for studying Economy-Energy-Environment interactions), which studies the interactions between economy, energy system and environment in European countries included in the Pan European model. The use of Gem-E3 ensures overall consistency in the macro-economic development for countries members of the Pem model.

Population and household projections are used from external sources, Eurostat in this case. These projections have been compared with figures for population projections in the short term by the Ine to verify their suitability for the Spanish reality and the figures used are similar. Table 2 shows the considered population growth rates.

The supply in the sector of energy production will be divided into primary production, which provides fuel unprocessed biomass and nuclear fuel; high school transformation, which converts forms of primary energy in fuels for end use sectors and for the generation of heat and electricity; and the end use. The model also keeps track of CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions throughout the entire system. Times-Spain used as GDP economic parameters and all investment costs and fixed and variable costs of all the technologies referred to in the model.

Finally, model has been calibrated for the year 2000 using energy balance data for the Eurostat database Spain.

The analyzed scenarios are as follows:

· BaU (Business as Usual) scenario: with grants and premiums for renewable energies as they exist today. In this version of the results the regulated tariffs of RD 661/2007 May 2007 have been included. A new version with new rates regulated September 2008 is being developed.

· Arena Ref: scenario without subsidies or materials.

· Scenario Res-2020: the Ref scenario incorporates the objectives of the directive on renewable energies and their corresponding objectives for CO2 emissions, different sectors involved in the market of emissions (ETS) which do not (non-ETS) as shown in table 4.

· Res-2020T scenario: as above but by introducing the possibility of an intra-green certificates. In this scenario, each generated unit and each unit consumption of renewable electricity in final energy sector, is placed a green certificate that can be used to achieve the objective of the directive or to trade with other countries.

The comparison between RES-2020 and BaU scenarios will give an indication of how the national incentives applied in different countries can help or not in compliance with the directive.

In general, higher gross energy consumption corresponds to the reference scenario, REF, which is the one that does not take account any policy or measure of support for renewable energy. It is in this stage which also gives a lower penetration of renewable energy in the system against an increase in the use of gas in future periods. It is reflected in this way the role of these measures, as premiums to production with renewable energy, in the promotion of these technologies are making that they experience a development increased when they are applied as in the case of the BaU scenario which corresponds to the current situation.

There are no noticeable differences in the consumption of a sector between the different scenarios. The total consumption in 2030 is lower RES scenarios. This reduction is due in large part to the industrial sector. With regard to the transport sector, is observed the penetration of biofuels in Res scenarios starting in 2010 with the consequent reduction of consumption in the fossil fuels that substitute. In 2010, the consumption of biofuels in these scenarios involves a 5.75% of the total, in 2020 10% (the objectives of the directive) and in 2030 10%.

Only the scenarios that include targets for renewables directive reach these goals. Both the Ref scenario that does not provide anything of the above, and the BaU scenario with premiums and current aid would fall below the set objectives. It notes that when they are targets for renewables, the model chooses to bring wind power to a greater extent than the rest of renewable technologies and in the same amount as in the case of the application of premiums and aid. However, only in the case of premiums, the solar energy experienced a breakthrough in the composition of the energy system that does not occur when laying down the objectives.

BaU and Ref would scenarios not be achieved the objective of 20% of renewable energy system by 2020.

On imports of fossil fuels, from 2020 was noted a reduction due to the penetration of renewable energy in the system. Between 2020 and 2025, this reduction is to be 17% According to the results of the Res stage against the results of the baseline scenario which does not include measures of promotion of renewables. With regard to biofuels, to meet future demand model imported biofuels but of countries within the European Union in which the security of supply is guaranteed.

As a result one could conclude that among the most important results was noted that the major impacts of the establishment of targets for renewable energies fall on the electricity sector. In particular, solar and wind technologies penetrate market significantly with the low turnout in the baseline scenario in which AIDS or materials are not considered.

In relation to the impact of the current aid, it is observed that above all benefit the solar plants that without bonuses or incentives have a penetration much less even than when the aim of the directive is included for 2020. The participation of biofuels never exceeds the level imposed by the directive.

Finally, in terms of energy security, the establishment of targets for the participation of renewable energy results in a reduction in imports of fossil fuels and an increase in imports of biofuels that however, given that they imported from EU countriesdo not negatively contribute to security in the supply but on the contrary.