They say that Spain goes out of the crisis

The report, titled ‘Growth and Sustainability of the Spanish Economy' and presented to the means by the president of Telefónica, César Alierta, indicates us that we are already in the track of despegue, that next year go to begin to grow, that thanks to the labour reform the tax of unemployment will reduce to 17,4%, that the market inmobiliario will normalise in a brief period of time and that the banking problem is practically resolved. So at all, done already the duties and seated the bases of the recovery, so only is question to hold the chaparrón some months, that between the Eurocopa, the holidays of summer and the parties of Christmas that every time begin before, will happen us flying, and goodbye to the crisis that here has not happened at all.

What calm have remained me. I appear me that you also. The only that happens, call me desconfiado, is that there are some questions, mere details surely, that do not finish me to square. The General Budgets of the State have foreseen for this year an adjust of 27.300 millions, “the elder in the history of the democracy” said the gentleman minister of Inland revenue. And today I read in the newspaper that only Bankia goes to need public helps in more than 23.400 millions (the minister of Guindos had said few days before that would suffice only 9.000). By the way, public helps wants to say that we go them to pay between all, with our taxles. Already I know that already they know it, but it likes me remark it. But anyway, I suppose that this already had contemplated it the report of the Business Council and does not leave to be a mere setback that does not alter, for nothing, the optimum forecasts of the same.

Although already put to be quisquillosos there is some another subject that I, skeptical as I am, do not finish to see of the all clear. It results that the Spanish banking in his group keeps a risk promoter of almost 300.000 millions (practically the same that in 2007), more than 650.000 millions in active inmobiliarios, whose value of market has collapsed in the last years, all this provisionado partly, but of form clearly insufficient. And it has triplicado besides his investment in domestic public debt until the 230.000 millions, which does it enormously vulnerable in case of intervention or restructuring of the Spanish debt. But this does not have to upset us at all because, such as recalca the report, Spain does not go to be taken part.

So, although in the moment to write this article the risk premium is brushing the 500 points and Standard & Poor's finishes to recess to bono rubbish no only to Bankia, but also to Bankinter and to Popular Bank, this did not have to break neither an apex our confidence in the financial system neither in the excellent expectations that reflects the report. No in vain between the 17 big employers elaboradores of the same, are the presidents of the Santander, of the BBVA and of the Caixa. Who better that they to diagnose the state of the Spanish banking? As if they say that it is well is that it is very that's that. What goes to know that such Krugman, by a lot of Nobel prize that can exhibit, speaking of the possibility of a corralito in Spain? A lot of envy is what there is.

Regarding the possibility that Greece can go out of the euro, or that the European Union impose or no a politics of persistence in the austerity, as it sustains Germany, or of dinamización of the growth, as it proposes the new French president, this does not seem to be very notable put that the report ignores it completely. Or it was, that there is not problem, whatever happens, Spain will go out of the crisis in question of very few months. Forget of the forecasts of those that say that, if there is not a radical change in the European economic politics, this goes to go from bad to worse. At all, neither case. Our more illustrate employers have said that the Spanish economy is about to despegar. So they go up on board, lace the belts, put his seats in vertical position and turn off his electronic devices.

A personal warning. It can that they experience some turbulences during the flight.