Hold that comes 2011

2011, fourth year of crisis, will be an interesting year. The uncertainties that are still planning on the Spanish economy are entrepreneurs in a complex position. Forecasts of various analysts and financial institutions are extremely disparate with respect to the possible recovery of economic activity and its intensity. Thus, while the Government expects a growth of 1.3% of GDP, BBVA it lowers to the 0.9, the Bank of Spain to 0.8, la Caixa to 0.7%, the IMF to 0.6 and the foundation of boxes of saving func to the 0.4. That is, less than one-third of the official forecast. There are also some visionaries economists, as Professor of economic structure Santiago Niño Becerra, that forecast to 2011 a monumental 'crash' with a fall in GDP of 9%, singular opinion, everything has to be said, that shares almost no one.

In which there is a general consensus is that unemployment will continue to be about 20% (Niño Becerra amounts it to 30) and that the construction will continue with flat encephalogram. There is also no doubt that the public authorities, central Government, regional Governments, municipalities, some technically bankrupt, will limit their investment to a minimum, will keep paying late and poorly and will continue to be indebted to the ears. On the other hand, some banks such as the Popular have already warned that 2011 will be a difficult year as regards the restriction of credit to SMEs, while, at the same time, it is increasing the savings of familieswhich it negatively affects the consumption. There are some more encouraging elements, such as the predictable increase in exports and tourism, driven by the relative improvement of our environment, but they are insufficient to compensate for the weight of the negative factors that prevent the economic situation of Spain. In short, if we look to the forecasts of experts and the common sense mere, we see a picture of stagnation for 2011. Impasse in the crisis, it refers to.

Given this, the temptation of the entrepreneur can be inaction. Elevate mere survival to the category of single goal. Strictly follow the advice of St. Ignatius "in a time of confusion do move" or, put in more traditional terms, "still indicate". But this, gentlemen, going for long. And which do not start espabilar are going to have very crude to succeed of this long journey in the desert. There is always room to maneuver even with limited resources. There are always possibilities to change strategies, new challenges, amend outdated schemes, renew products and services, explore new markets or new sectors. Some are already doing. They are those who will survive and which will be strengthened from the crisis.

It will be an interesting year, so please. The economy will remain stagnant but sometimes troubled. They will fall (will continue to fall) lots of small and medium-sized enterprises it will not in the newspapers, drowned by the lack of credit or the lack of ideas. Or because the employer will have decided to throw the towel. And his place will be taken by other more dynamic, more nonconformist, better adapted to the new economy. Little by little we'll see how to change the landscape. It will be an interesting year. There will be regional and municipal elections, Belén Esteban will continue to reign in the screens and may even Real Madrid go second round in the Champions League. Everything will tend to be as usual, without reverting to be anymore as before.