How it will be 2013

Walk the employers in these days doing budgets. Debating us, as always, between the pessimism of the intelligence and the optimism of the will. And I save for the few privileged for those who the Spanish market already is irrelevant, for the other is crucial to foresee how will comport the Spanish economy in the next year because of this will depend in good measure the evolution of our income. This is the interrogante that upsets us to all in these dates and that, given the embarrancado course by which flows our economy from does already four years, results us more uncertain and difficult to resolve.

See what think the presumptive experts. It says the European Commission that the Spanish economy will fall in 2013, in terms of GDP, 1,4%, the same forecast that do the OCDE and the BBVA. According to the FMI, something more optimistic, only will descend 1,3%, whereas for the Foundation of boxes of Saving (FUNCAS) the fall will be more pronounced, 1,6%. The Government, inasequible to the desaliento, sustains that all they make a mistake and that the descent of the GDP will be minimum, of hardly 0,5%. But in any case, all, without exception, admit that 2013 will be worse that 2012. In this context, there is margin for the optimism?

Will say them which is my forecast, although in this terrain all the conjectures are mere opinions and all are based in reasonings more or less founded. It said Gioberti that the opinion is the direct enemy of the truth. And regarding the reasonings, argued Lamartine that no all those that reason have reason, the reasonings are infinite but the reason only one. I warn them, therefore, to that they do not give too credit to my argumentation, is not more than an opinion reasoned.

In my opinion, 2013 will be the year of the recovery in the field of the small and medium enterprises and in the greater part of sectors. It will follow destroying employment, but will be the administrations and public companies together with the financial entities, no longer the SMEs, those that will contribute to the increase of the unemployment. The export will follow throwing of the most dynamic companies and these, to his time, will exert of tractor trucks on the other. The greater part of companies, those that have been able to survive to the selection, already have done adjust them necessary to adapt to a demand depressesed and are in better conditions to face the future. And regarding the financials, is likely that begin to resolve once have culminated the process of fusions and the reform of the financial sector in the next months. That Spain have to ask or no the rescue seems now less trascendente. The reality is that the risk premium has relaxed and the Treasure goes placing debt without too many problems. And the most notable, in 2013 there are elections in Germany and, was cual was the result, is predictable a change of course in the tending European Union to diminish the pressesure on the measures of adjust in the peripheral countries and to bet by the politics of growth. The result of the recent elections in United States will contribute, definitely, to the consolidation of this new approach. In 2013 it will not finish the crisis, if we understand by crisis an economic context of scarce growth with high taxles of unemployment and of public and private indebtedness. This goes for long. But 2013 it can be the year of the definite stabilisation of the economy and, for the companies in his group, the turning point to a new stage of growth sustained.

There are bases for the optimism. In these dates of renewals of campaigns, in Interempresas speak each week with numerous employers of all the fields. And the general feeling, although with remarkable sectorial exceptions, is positive. The companies have problems of índole very diverse, but the elder splits no longer complains of fault of work. And this is an excellent indication, although all tend to twist the gesture when them inquiere on the future. It is true, there is a general problem of fault of confidence, but a few months more than stability will tend to strengthen it. There are bases for the optimism and it is necessary to stick to they. Because without confidence there will be recovery. And it is a duty of all, no only of the politicians, contribute to strengthen it.