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  2. The EU will produce 2,4% more than meat during the next eight years   (24/02/2012)

This news article was originally written in Spanish. It has been automatically translated for your convenience. Reasonable efforts have been made to provide an accurate translation, however, no automated translation is perfect nor is it intended to replace a human translator. The original article in Spanish can be viewed at La UE producirá un 2,4% más de carne durante los próximos ocho años
The situation differs between the ruminants and the production of animals no ruminant, like meat of animal/beef and ovino-goat milking rooms, that fall 1,3% and 7,9%, respectively

The EU will produce 2,4% more than meat during the next eight years

24 February 2012

The perspectives on a long-term basis for the markets of the EU of products of meat shows a relatively favourable panorama for the no ruminant and a continuous decrease in the production of meat of animal and of meat of ovino. The consumption of meat of birds of farmyard show a faster growth, but the meat of pig will keep on being the most popular in the EU. Like this it aims it the report 'Perspectives of the Agricultural Markets in the EU in 2011-2020' of the European Commission. Regarding the trade, expects that the EU keep on being a net exporter of meat of pig and of birds of farmyard.
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The demand of meat of the EU diminished along 2009 and the companies of import of meat saw affected by the feeble demand, what reduced the volumes of import. Instead, the market of the meat of the EU during the year 2010 characterised by an increase in the production and the recovery of the net position of trade of the EU.

The total production of meat increased in the years 2009 and 2010, with the sheep and the meat of goat like the only that have showed a continuous declining tendency. The producers of meat of pig, in particular, bore the weight of the high costs of insumos, with a critical period between the autumn of 2010 and principles of 2011 because of an increase of prices of the piensos and the low prices of the meat of pig, that affected gravely to the profitability.

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The greater demand of meat in the EU, during the next years, will benefit especially to the pork and to the chicken of fatten.
For the first time from 2003, the EU turned into a net exporter of meat of beef (including alive animals and products of meat), after the strong increase of the exports in 2010 and 2011. The increase was particularly strong for the exports of cool meat and frozen products to Turkey and Russia, whereas traditional key markets like the Half Orient, China and Russia kept firm. The improvement of the net external position was promoted by a feebler euro and the shortage of supply in traditional exporters of meat like Brazil and Argentina in particular. This, amongst other factors, contributed to improve the competitiveness of the EU in the export in the context of a narrow international of the market of meat vaccine with countries like Turkey, with a considerable reduction of tariffs to the import of meat of bovine.
The sector cárnico confronts to a series of uncertainties related with the production, mainly tied to the increase of production and costs of investment and his financials

Perspectives of market

The sector cárnico confronts to a series of uncertainties related with the production, mainly tied to the increase of production and costs of investment and his financials, from the adaptation limited, of the capacity of the sector, of the volatility of the market and of the problems of health related with the animals. In particular, the prices of components of power and proteins for piensos and other ingredients of piensos essential expects that they follow sienda high.

On the base of the current supposed macroeconómicos, the world-wide demand total of meat is projected that it recover of the shrinking caused by the economic crisis, and that the world-wide exports of meats would go further of the level pre-crisis of 2013. On a long-term basis the exports of meat will increase to an annual rhythm of around 2%, promoted by the birds of farmyard and the pig, with a strong increase of the exports of meat and a modest growth in the trade of ruminants. In general, the exports of meat would be in 2020 22% upper to the level of 2009, a percentage that goes up until 31% in the meat of pig, the meat of birds of farmyard (+26%), the meat of beef (+14%) and ovino-goat milking rooms (+4%).

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Total evolution of the market of the meat (million tonne). Period 2000-2020. Source: EU.
The hypotheses macroeconómicas underlying suggest a weakening of the potential of export of the EU, had to mainly to the fortress of the euro in front of the American dollar, especially from 2013. On the other hand, the economic recovery and the continuous growth of the population involves better perspectives for the total consumption of meat in the EU and all over the world. However, one of the most important factors that determine the perspectives of production of meat is the gradual increase of the price of the oil and his impact in the cost of the insumos (power, lfertilizantes and the piensos, in particular).

The production of meat projects a recovery in the short term of the fall suffered as a result of the economic crisis. The total production of meat would arrive to 44,7 million tonnes in 2020, surpassing the level of 2010 in 2,4% (Graphic 1). The situation differs between the ruminants and the production of animals no ruminant, like meat of animal/beef and ovino-goat milking rooms, that fall 1,3% and 7,9%, respectively, whereas the production of pigs and meat of bird grows 3,6%.

The per capita consumption of meat in the EU could arrive to the 83 kilos in 2020, only 0,3% more than in 2010
After an improvement in the short term, promoted by a feebler euro, foresees that the net commercial position of the the EU deteriore because of a constant, although modest increase of the imports of meat (meat of beef, ovino-goat milking rooms and meat of birds of farmyard) and a parallel descent in the exports of meat of pig and birds of farmyard in the half and long term. The total imports of meat would grow 6,1% and the exports would keep above the level of 2010 in 1,9% in 2020.

The production of meat of birds of farmyard and of pig will be promoted by an increase in the consumption of this type of meats (Graphic 2). With a per capita consumption of meat in the EU that it could arrive to the 83 kilos in 2020, only 0,3% more than in 2010, the consumption of meat of bird will increase more than 4% between 2010 and 2020, whereas the growth of meat of pig will keep underneath of 4%. The consumption of meat of beef and the one of ovino-goat milking rooms would reduce in 0,8% and 3,6% respectively.

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Chart 2: Development of the total consumption of the meat in the EU (kg/hab) in the period 2000-2020. Source: EU.
The meat of pig will keep on being the most popular meat in the European Union, with a consumption of 41,6 kg/hab in the year 2020, in comparison with the 23,6 kg/hab of birds of farmyard, the 15,8 kg. Of meat of beef and around the 2 kg of meat of ovino and goat milking rooms.

The total consumption would grow faster in the EU-15 (+3,2%) between 2010 and 2020, but, given the suppositions of an increase of the population in the EU-15 and the decrease of the population in the EU-12, the consumption foresees that it grow faster in the EU-12, 1,3%, expressesed per capita. Even so, the total of consumption of per capita meat of the EU-12 (75,1 kg) would follow being underneath of the level of the EU-15 (85 kg) in 2020.

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