The end of the crisis or the rupture of the loop
May 1, 2009
How we got here, at this stage of history, we all know. We know what have been the causes of the crisis, their background, their triggers and, more loosely, some of its perpetrators. Told us what of spoke them and the 'ninjas'. A legion of 'Analist' that have failed to anticipate the arrival of the recession have explained to us with all sorts of details when, how and the why of what happened until today. And that the situation is serious very serious and that we have never been worse. All very entertaining, no doubt, and of great interest, more than anything to avoid that happens again. But that is already history. What really matters now, beyond soothsayers forecasts or optimismos without basis, how and when we are going to come out of the loop, what is missing so that the economy starts to pick up and Damian and Ernesto can buy the car.
There are many incidents factors, no doubt. The behaviour of banking on the recovery of the credit will be essential. The measures Government, both the designed to improve liquidity and to the strengthening of public investment, can be of great help. But the key, the key real, is the recovery of confidence, that the dictionary defines it as "mood, decision, or value to act". Trust is what they need different economic operators, from the financial sector to the industrial, employers and workers, merchants and consumers. Confidence to lend money, confidence to invest, trust to recruit staff, confidence to buy a car. The recovery of confidence will not be a consequence of the end of the crisis. It will have been its trigger.
And how are stimulated confidence? For starters, not creating mistrust. When from international organizations, centres of studies and foundations several broadcast doomsday predictions, with frankly low bases, which in turn are amplified by some means of communication, that creates mistrust. When Governments shilly-shally, disseminate conflicting messages, are reluctant to undertake far-reaching reforms and lack of leadership, that creates mistrust. When the opposition parties and their media acolytes magnify the negative data by mere electoral calculation, that creates mistrust.
However, there are data basis for optimism. Everything seems to indicate that, in terms of quarter of growth, the Spanish economy would have bottomed in the first quarter of 2009. In other words: the worst of the crisis has passed and we are starting to pick up. We must feed the improvement of the expectations. Without a doubt, we will continue to dealing with negative data for some months. But the certainty that has passed the worst has to be permeating. And we must help it cale.
As for Damian, after several months of sending resumes, renegotiate with your bank the lengthening of the mortgage and to carry out a training course on renewable energy, finally has found a new job in a company that manufactures wind mills. Yesterday named Ernesto. The factory of components is no longer reduce template and no longer fears losing his job. They have been to go to the dealer to start looking at it in the car.