Situation and forecasts of the sector of the construction in Europe
The forecast for 2013 contemplates that the conjoint computation of all the countries grow 0,4%, but after east date average there is a quite uneven behaviour to level of national markets, that can sintetizar in these four patterns:
- Countries in where it prolongs the crisis and that do not contemplate to register growth in 2013. In spite of this, all expect that they relax his rhythms of fall. Spain finds in this supposition.
- Countries that abandon the negative zone in 2013, although they achieve it with more or less margin. Italy and Finland expect a modest recovery; United Kingdom and Sweden aspire to a more substantial improvement.
- Countries that keep an advance to discreet speed but constant. It is the case of Germany, that in spite of improving his expectations some tenth for 2013, does not foresee more than 2,5%.
- Countries that expect sortear reasonably well the pothole of the 2012, but that they will be unable to keep the same rhythm in 2013. These exceptions are France and Poland, two countries of big dimension of market.
Finally, the projections for 2014 himself that contain some indication of growth more substantial (1,7%) in spite of that it only would be sustentado by the private demand.
Evolution by subsectores
Till lately, the sector European construction had deposited a lot of hopes in that the edificación residential of new plant was the springboard for the exit of his crisis. In fact, this market was the most active of 2011 with an advance of 2,7% that in a principle thought that it could be the base in where cimentar his recovery. However, with the impairment of the economy, the construction of house goes in in a neutral phase of two years: in 2012 it will lose production (-1%) but will go back to recover in 2013 (+1,1%). In spite of the mediocre of this panorama, follows predominating the feeling that in good part of Europe exists a reasonably substantial demand so that, in the moment that there is something of mejoría economic, translate quickly in new projects. Of here that the projection for 2013 was of +3,5%.
The situation of the edificación no residential also worsens. The descent of production for the 2012 (-4,1%) is deeper of what expected and extends also to the 2013 (-0,6%). So that the no residential market return to the growth is indispensable that backstitch the construction of offices, something that does not expect until the 2014. The rest of segments will oscillate between the bad behaviour of education and health (by his dependency of the public investment), the stagnation of trade and industry, and the best perspectives for the logistics.
The rehabilitation has been always a less liable market to the cycles, and the fact that his forecast was negative for 2012 (-0,5%) serves to illustrate the scope of the recaída of the sector construction. The turn to the growth will be progressive in 2013 (+0,9%) and 2014 (+1,5%), having that the governments decide to keep the current programs of help to the rehabilitation, whose paper is decisive in many of the countries of the sample.
There are not too many changes regarding the stage for the civil engineering that described in the previous report: a route in 'L', in which after a significant descent during 2010-2012 happens to a period of stagnation in 2013-
2014. The intensity of the negative stretch of 2012 is not trivial (-4,2%) and still would be worse without the positive contribution of some countries like Poland. Precisely, the interruption of the growth in Poland does notice a lot in the forecast 2013 (-0,7%).
Situation and forecasts in Spain
The Spanish economy is witnessing a succession of grave news (return to the recession, threats on the Euro, European rescue to the banking…) that do to think in a stage of crisis of long length. A stage that impacta of full on the sector construction, for which the new forecasts auguran drops very severe (-21,1% for 2012 and -8,1% for 2013) that seem improper of a sector that carries chaining five consecutive years of descents. The projection for 2014, in spite of contemplating a suavización of the losses (-2,1%), does not hide the fact that to the sector Spanish construction goes him to result very difficult to find arguments to grow.
The edificación residential continues paralysed by the big stocks of remanent house of the years of bonanza, that do not find gone out in a market inmobiliario very cooled. The greater obstacles are of índole financial, and the different reforms in this field still shut numerous incógnitas. The endurecimiento of provisions can be a weapon of double edge: applied on the active in wallet, can force the exit to the market of houses to lower price; but applied on the new promotion and on the new mortgages, can be a cortapisa. desconoce Also which effects go to cause the auditss of the banking sector, and how go to implant finally the new societies of management of active. In group, a climate too enrarecido so that the activity of residential construction interrupt his descent, neither in 2012 (-12%) neither in 2013 (-5%).
The edificación no residential also suffers his particular excess of offer, product of a market that in spite of carrying some years braking the production, has not done it to the same rhythm that the fall of the demand. Here also it expects that they appear offers to better price from the stock that at present is in hands of the banks, but hardly will be able to have an effect auténticamente catalyst on the construction if it does not begin to appear some symptom of economic improvement. The panorama does not differ too much of the described for the house, with descents for 2012 (-18,5%) and 2013 (-5,5%).
The civil engineering concentrates the most negative expectations for the period 2012-2014. The measures of adjust adopted to brake the deficit are happening a high bill to the construction of infrastructures, that already in 2011 suffered a severe impact (-34%) only by the effect of the containment of the expense to level of central administration. In 2012, now also with the territorial administrations against the ropes, the forecast worsens until a -40%. In spite of these so conclusive descents, exists the perception that some appearances of the planning (especially of railway industry) go to have to be reviewed still more to the drop in the near future. A future that goes through to reestablish the confidence of the private investment, at present in minima. Of here that the panorama contemplate the continuation of the negative tendency during 2013 (-18,5%) and 2014 (-8,5%).
Euroconstruct is an independent group of analysis formed by 19 European institutes that annually celebrates two conferences, one in summer and another in winter, with the purpose to present his reports on the current and future situation of the markets of the construction, relative to the edificación residential and no residential and to the civil engineering, so much regarding the work of new plant as to the one of rehabilitation. The ITeC elaborates the report of Spain for the group Euroconstruct.
This year the conference of summer has celebrated in London, organised by Experian, the British member of the group, and by part of
The following meeting of the forum Euroconstruct will celebrate the next days 11 and 12 December in Munich, organised by the IFO-Institut, the German member of the group.
