It is the crisis, friends. Only that
January 26, 2009
It seems that it will end the world. A growing atmosphere of pessimism pervades our economy from the financial sector to permeate all and every one of our industrial sectors. Collapse unprecedented situation on the edge of the abyss, bad expectations, they are some of the owners of the economic information of these days. The progressive deterioration of all the economic indicators and the real situation of most companies, with financing problems and vertiginous declines in sales, tripping over themselves reasonably to the discouragement of when not to despair. This is the dominant environment in the business world and there are reasons for this. Many reasons: from incompetence and lack of leadership of our rulers until the cynicism of the financial institutions, whose attitude towards the productive sector bordering the immorality. It gives the impression that we will not leave it, that we are going to drift...
But it will not end the world. At least, not immediately and for economic reasons. It is the crisis, friends, just that. A crisis of many that are cyclically shaking the economy since the market was invented. Perhaps part of the problem lies in that already not we remember the previous sixteen years ago. In fact, many of our executives and managers, under forty years of age were at that time in its formative stage and, until today, they have never had to play his work with the current against. But there have been others and we have gone out of them. As we leave no doubt of this.
I know that you will tell me that the others were different, that this is much worse. It is always the worst that is suffering. But if we go back to the year 1993 and we stick to objective data, maybe it will change our perspective. Go for a moment into the time tunnel, and remember... Felipe González was the President of the Government and employers in fashion were called Mario Conde and Javier de la Rosa. Carlos Solchaga was the Minister of economy, although only until June of that year, when it was replaced. By whom?. Therefore for a such Pedro Solbes, sure that sounds like them more. But let's go to the data. In the last quarter of 1992 GDP had declined by 1.2 per cent and in the first quarter of 1993 the decrease reached 2.5. Inflation touched 5 percent, the Euribor the 5.9 and the unemployment rate came to exceed 23 per cent. And one more fact: late payments reached 9.25 percent!
If we compare these figures with the current we might have a certain sense of relief. Some will worsen, sure, but the margin is very broad. And how ended that crisis?, wonder children. As the economy continued shrinking in the second quarter of 1993, but less, 1.5; and in the third quarter still less, only a 0.3. And as in the good stories, the always, the happy ending, in the first quarter of 1994 we started to grow a robust 2.8 percent . The crisis is over, and finished well.
I know that this them will not help to improve their income this month or the next months statements. Some companies then succumbed and others will now succumb. But the vast majority went forward and the Spanish economy strengthened and opened a long phase of modernization and growth. We are now paying them excesses of the party. But the Sun will go tomorrow and an 86 per cent of our workforce will continue rising to go to work and will continue to consume each day.