The sector of the construction foresees a fragile stabilisation for 2013
The sector of the construction does not finish to recover . During 2011, the contribution of this sector to the Spanish economy followed diminishing, so much in terms of total investment as in net production. The difficult access to the credit and the endurecimiento of the conditions of the loan achieved to worsen more the situation. Like this, in the third quarter of 2011, the investments diminished 10,4% in the subsector no residential and 4,1% in the subsector residential.
The number of employees in the sector also has seen reduced, specifically in 43%, from 13,32%, that reached in the third quarter of 2007. The sector followed employing to 7,55% of the total of active workers in the third quarter of 2011. For this 2012, the sector foresees that it hire 9% more regarding the previous year, although the fragile stabilisation of this situation will not materialise until 2013.
This improvement will support in the demand of some segments of the sector of the construction (edificación residential and no residential, mainly), that already have suffered the worst phase of the adjust.
The sector of materials of construction (cement, steel of construction, installations, furniture, carpentry and sanitary ware devices) also continues suffering. A significant example is the one of the consumption of cement, that has diminished in 50% from the second quarter of 2007. In 2011 specifically, it has produced a new fall of 15% with regard to the previous year.
During the year happened the production of the civil engineering diminished drastically in 35%, since this saw directly affected by the measures of austerity that the Spanish Government has approved in 2010. This subsector, achieved to cushion his fall until finals of 2009, thanks to the important package of measures of the Government for projects of civil engineering, designed to counter the decrease of the activity and the demand in the private sector. However, the change of course in the economic politics in the year 2010, allocated to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3% of the GDP in 2013, left little margin of manoeuvre for the expense in additional infrastructure during the year 2012.
In 2013 it foresees an increase of 2,5% in the residential construction
The forecast aims to that the evolution of the residential market in this 2012 can improve a bit, after the new Government approved the fiscal reduction for the acquisition of houses; however, in general terms, it expects a stagnation in the sector. For 2013 and 2014 they expect modest advances (around 2,5%), since the construction of new buildings will not exceed of 100.000 houses of average.
With regard to the no residential construction, the conditions of the market will have to improve to expect new projects, by what 2012 still will be a period of contraction (near of 10%). Besides, the perception of risk that has of the country is not contributing, and could do that the foreign investors keep out of the market. To weigh that the forecasts for 2013 and 2014 include a light mejoría (+1,5%), still does not foresee a return to normal levels of production.
In civil engineering, the forecasts for 2012 are not neither much less brilliant, and aim to an important contraction in the civil work promoted by the central government and the regional administrations. It expects that the effects of this correction dispel for the years 2013 and 2014.
In this sector, the postponement and the delays in the payments will keep on being desfavorables along 2012. It will depend to a large extent, of the evolution of the restrictions in the banking sector and, in particular, of the strict that they are the conditions of financials, that involve so much to providers as to financial entities.
The insolvencies in the sector of the construction increased 12% in 2011 arriving to the 1.584 cases, whereas the business insolvencies Spaniards in general, increased 14% until the 6.486 cases.
This increase underneath of the average indicates that the painful adjust important in this sector already have taken place. However, the construction and affine sectors follow representing the thickness of the insolvencies (one of each four), gone on down the service sector.